Nashville, Tennessee

New AVIATION

• Medium to high rain chances spread area-wide on Sunday.
• Dry and cool for a few days before another high chance for a soaking rainfall middle of next week.

Showers are continuing to overspread the area this evening associated with a shortwave trough. These rain rates are very light and the nearest thunder is along the Gulf Coast. Expect this activity to increase in coverage throughout the day on Sunday, remaining at a steady drizzle. Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the column with very little instability. Combined with PWATs above the 90th percentile around 1.2", expect a steady widespread rain Sunday morning with occasional downpours and rumbles of thunder, especially west of I-65. The main impact from this rain will be a much cooler day on Sunday with temperatures even a bit below normal in the low 60s. After the shortwave and its resultant moisture pulls away, Monday looks dry and mild in between systems.

The majority of Tuesday is also in the transitional period awaiting the next weather maker. Dual low pressure systems are slated to eject from the Rockies on Tuesday morning: one with a trajectory over the Great Lakes and another with a track along the I-40 corridor. The southernmost surface low will be more impactful for Middle TN, but it looks like we are in the sweet spot in between favorable severe weather ingredients. The Great Lakes system will be displaced too far north to cause any impacts. Forecast surface analyses depict the southern system deepening to the point of occlusion by the time it reaches the Mississippi River on Wednesday morning, centered over west TN. This will help keep the axis of highest instability confined to the Gulf Coast during FROPA and limit our severe weather potential. Again, the main impact from this next system will be another good soaking for Middle TN. Storm total QPF probabilities of rainfall > 2" are about 50-60% per the LREF next week.

As the occluded low migrates off to the east on Thursday and Friday, wraparound showers from this same system will continue to impact parts of Middle TN for several days. Broad upper level troughing per the LREF supports much cooler temperatures (finally near normal in the mid 60s) and 20-40% PoPs through at least Friday morning. We finally dry back out on Friday evening but remain cool.

Due to a dry layer just above the surface, VFR conditions should stick around until roughly 12-14z Sunday morning. CIGs will deteriorate through the afternoon with BNA, MQY, and CKV expected to drop to MVFR. There`s also potential for CKV to see a couple of hours of IFR CIGs at the end of the period. CSV/SRB are forecast to remain VFR, but CIGs will be hovering around 4-5kft. Southwest winds will be 5-10 kt through the period with gusts up to 15-20 kt tomorrow afternoon and evening. Rain chances will start to diminish after 00z.

Nashville      63  52  74  58 /  90  30  10   0
Clarksville    62  52  74  59 /  90  30  10   0
Crossville     60  47  69  50 /  50  30  10   0
Columbia       63  52  74  58 / 100  30  10   0
Cookeville     63  52  72  56 /  60  30  10   0
Jamestown      63  50  71  54 /  50  40  10   0
Lawrenceburg   62  51  73  57 / 100  30  10   0
Murfreesboro   64  52  75  58 /  90  20  10   0
Waverly        61  54  72  60 / 100  20  10   0

None.