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Area Forecast Discussion · BUF

Buffalo, New York

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587 Aero Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225, United States of America

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Product header AFDBUF·FXUS61 KBUF 010540
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
AWIPS ID
AFDBUF
WMO heading
FXUS61 KBUF 010540
Sequence
485

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes to the forecast with this issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer today and dry through Monday.

2) A chance of showers Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer today and dry through Monday.

The surface high overhead will drift off to our east and then southeast today to the Mid Atlantic region. While the high will continue to support dry weather, we will see southerly flow (WAA) develop which will aid in boosting temperatures across the region. Highs today will be found in the 60s across WNY, with upper 50s to near 60F across the North Country.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week.

A low pressure moving out of the Colorado Rockies and a warm frontal segment will extend east from this system on Tuesday which may introduce a few showers to the region. In the wake of the warm front, southerly flow (WAA) will push temperature well into the 60s to low 70s Tuesday, and the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. While the overall evolution of this system still remains uncertain, it does appear it will be dry on Wednesday. After that, the cold front will inch its way east with unsettle weather (showers) Thursday and then maybe some showers lingering through the end of the week.

AVIATION

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

There may be a small amount of patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier this morning with local IFR. Otherwise...VFR will prevail as strong surface high pressure drifts slowly towards the Mid Atlantic today.

Outlook

Tonight and Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few scattered light showers possible.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

MARINE

A strong surface high over the lower Great Lakes will drift to the Mid Atlantic States today through Monday, then off the eastern seaboard Tuesday. Light winds will become south to southwest through Tuesday, but winds and waves will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather and warming temperatures today through Monday. This will continue to maintain very dry fine fuels and leaf litter. There is a chance of showers Tuesday but dry weather will resume Wednesday, unsettle weather potentially returns Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY

None.

MARINE

None.

DISCUSSION...ARAVIATION...ARMARINE...ARFIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock

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Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

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The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
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Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

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