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Area Forecast Discussion · ILM

Wilmington, North Carolina

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2015 Gardner Dr, Wilmington, NC, United States of America

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Product header AFDILM·FXUS62 KILM 010624
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
AWIPS ID
AFDILM
WMO heading
FXUS62 KILM 010624
Sequence
846

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include AMZ254 into tonight. Otherwise changes to previous forecast were minor. Aviation discussion updated for 6z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures this week with rain chances late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temperatures this week with rain chances late week.

Persistent ridging over the East Coast will shift offshore early this week kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures are forecasted to be around 10 degrees above normal starting Tuesday and lasting through late week. A shortwave lifting across the Southeast will bring rain chances to the area Wednesday night into Friday, with increased PWATs aided by return flow. However, latest guidance has most of the forcing remaining to our west and north, and ensemble guidance only has 0.25-0.5" of QPF through the end of the week. Shifts in the location of the trough will change the rainfall forecast.

AVIATION

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VFR with scattered to broken high clouds. Northeast winds 5-10 kts through the 6z TAF period, with gusts around 15 kts during the day.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR. The risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers increases on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory, which has been expanded to include AMZ254, remains in effect into tonight for 6 ft seas in the outer nearshore coastal waters. There is a chance the SCA could be extended into Monday for the coastal waters off of Georgetown county (AMZ256) where 6 ft seas may linger a bit longer.

Persistent breezy northeast winds continue across the local waters through midweek before veering to easterlies as high pressure moves off the Northeast coast. Seas dominated by ENE swell through Monday before swell becomes easterly. Significant wave heights 4-6 ft through Monday for the 0-20nm waters drop to 3-5 ft for Tuesday through Thursday. For the 20-60nm waters, seas generally in the 5-7 ft range through midweek. Scattered thunderstorms possible over the waters Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC

None.

SC

None.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILMKEY MESSAGES...VAODISCUSSION...VAOAVIATION...VAOMARINE...VAO

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Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

Offices issue one at least twice a day, early morning and afternoon, and update it as things change. It's written in sections, usually a synopsis, the near and long term, and the outlook for pilots, mariners and fire weather, ending with any watches, warnings and advisories in effect. Forecasters write in a shorthand of their own; the NWS glossary explains most of it.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.