Baltimore/Washington, Virginia

No hazardous weather is expected through Wednesday morning. Seasonable temperatures continue with much needed rain chances finally returning late next week.

• 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with much needed rain chances mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through at least Tuesday with much needed rain chances mid to late week.

Broad 1032-1035 mb high pressure will remain anchored northeast of the area today while continuing it`s influence across the Mid-Atlantic region. The high pressure will shift off the southern NJ/Delmarva coast Monday before meandering back overhead Tuesday. At the surface, expect a continuation of seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures will push into the 60s for most with overnight lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sunshine will be filtered at times today and Monday as a weak shortwave trough slides south of the region. Expect a thin broken to overcast deck of high level cirrus this morning giving way to breaks of filtered sunshine this afternoon. High level clouds return with onshore flow Monday before dissipating Tuesday as high pressure settles back over the region. Winds will remain light while turning to the south today before shifting to the east and southeast Monday into Tuesday. This will allow highs Tuesday to get back into the low 70s

Wednesday will be the day of transition as a deepening upper level trough pivots east from the Upper Midwest and Great Plains region. At the surface, will be an area of low pressure ejecting out of the mid-Mississippi River Valley/Mid-South ejecting north and east toward the central Appalachians and Carolina/VA coast Thursday into Friday. This will be our first widespread rain across the region in more than 2 weeks. Current 00z guidance suggest any widespread rain holding off until late Wednesday night and carrying through most of the day Thursday as low pressure passes over the region. A much needed soaking rainfall is expect with the probabilities of 1" of rain around 15-25 percent. Most guidance suggest rainfall amounts of 0.50-1" of rain over the Thursday through Friday timeframe. Of course this is subject to change based upon the track of the low pressure system late week. Surface high pressure builds overhead in the wake of the low pressure system, with diminishing rain chances expected heading into the upcoming weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge with those along and west in the upper 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night. Lows drop into the 40s east of the Blue Ridge Thursday and Friday night.

No significant impacts are expected to aviators through at least Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail along with dry conditions. Expect broken to overcast high level cirrus this morning giving way to scattered to broken high clouds this afternoon. Broken to overcast high level cirrus returns tonight into Monday with light onshore flow. Winds will turn to the south today before shifting to the east and southeast Monday at less than 15 kts. Some patchy fog is possible in the river valleys Monday and Tuesday morning given a slight uptick in moisture from weakened onshore flow and ahead of the incumbent trough mid to late week.

Wednesday will be the day of transition across the region. Expect increasing mid and high level clouds, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions will prevail until Wednesday evening with any precipitation holding off until Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions are increasingly likely Thursday and Friday as low pressure works across the region. Periods of rain are expected both days leading to lowering cigs and vsbys. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast at less than 15 kts through Thursday.

No marine hazards are expected through at least Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast today through Monday as high pressure pushes offshore. The high will settle back over the region Tuesday before centering itself over the western Atlantic mid to late week. This will lead to southerly winds and potential SCA channeling mainly over the open waters late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Low pressure will pass west of the waters Thursday with a secondary wave of low pressure passing to the east Friday. Winds will remain near or just below SCA levels both days with widespread rain expected. High pressure returns into the upcoming weekend.

DC

None.

MD

None.

VA

None.

WV

None.

MARINE

None.