El Paso, Texas

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION

• Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
• Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo Counties.
• Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday.

A slug of moisture will meet up with an upper trough and will bring breezy to very breezy conditions and precipitation chances Sunday. Anomalous moisture will still be present across the area with PWs of around 0.9"-1.1". Plenty of shear will be at play as well (0-6km shear of 50-70kt). Storm chances begin in the Gila region and western areas bordering AZ in the late afternoon (~3/4PM) and will push eastward through the evening hours Sunday. Most recent CAMs show a line of storms initially as it gets into the CWA but then struggles as it nears the Rio Grande Valley. This would make sense as this trough and it`s associated pacific front pushes towards El Paso, the sun sets and capping will start to build up and may just transition to more showery activity after dark. CAPE is the most uncertain in this forecast. Models continue to suggest afternoon CAPEs will be best in far west TX and S. Otero Co. with lower CAPEs out west where the front will reach first.

The SPC has placed portions of our area in a Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday with a focus for damaging wind gusts from storms. In addition, the Gila region and portions of northern Hidalgo Co. are in a Slight risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall with storms. A Marginal risk (Level 1/4) covers the Sacramento Mtns, NM Bootheel, Sierra Co. and portions of Luna Co. The Gila region, Black Range, and northern Hidalgo are in a Flood Watch currently. Storms will be moving fast but there will be concern for training storms causing flash flooding.

Storms exit Monday morning in the earlier morning hours, around sunrise. Lingering showers possible in the remaining morning hours but much drier air will push in right behind the front leaving a nice and dry day across the area on Monday but will be a bit breezy like Sunday will be. This nice, quiet, and dry weather will persist through the work week.

Quiet conditions overnight with light winds AOB 10KT and increasing clouds. Winds will be on the increase late morning and into the afternoon hours with winds 15-20G25-30KT by noon. Winds will be slightly stronger and should max out around 3/4PM. A line of storms and showers expected to push into western NM Sunday afternoon. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts.

Light and variable winds overnight with continued cloud cover for your Halloween. Overnight temperatures will stay warm due to cloud coverage.

Pacific storm system will approach the area on Sunday, with breezy southwest winds winds ahead of it. Sustained speeds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon will lead to Good vent rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across Gila NF will spread eastward across Southern New Mexico and Lincoln NF Sunday night into Monday morning. Localized heavy rain will lead to a flood risk for Gila NF Sunday afternoon.

Conditions becoming dry again on Monday, with a week of dry weather and light winds ahead. Vent rates generally look Poor to Fair each afternoon going forward. Few day-to-day changes in temperature next week, typical for early November. Fire danger will remain low due to seasonally high ERCs.

El Paso                  60  81  60  71 /   0  10  30   0
Sierra Blanca            54  78  54  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  77  53  67 /   0  40  60   0
Alamogordo               55  78  52  68 /  10  40  60  30
Cloudcroft               42  57  39  45 /  10  30  70  30
Truth or Consequences    56  75  53  70 /  30  60  80   0
Silver City              51  66  46  59 /  50  80  90  20
Deming                   54  77  51  66 /  10  60  80   0
Lordsburg                55  72  47  63 /  40  70  80  20
West El Paso Metro       61  80  61  70 /   0  10  40   0
Dell City                56  80  58  72 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Hancock             61  87  61  79 /  10   0  10   0
Loma Linda               55  74  54  64 /   0  10  30   0
Fabens                   60  85  60  75 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             58  79  57  69 /   0  20  50   0
White Sands HQ           59  79  57  69 /   0  40  50  10
Jornada Range            56  77  52  69 /  10  50  80   0
Hatch                    57  79  53  72 /  10  60  90   0
Columbus                 57  79  56  70 /  10  30  40   0
Orogrande                55  77  54  69 /   0  30  60  10
Mayhill                  48  69  46  58 /  10  20  70  10
Mescalero                47  68  43  56 /  20  30  70  50
Timberon                 45  65  42  55 /  20  20  80  20
Winston                  48  68  45  62 /  50  70  90  10
Hillsboro                55  73  51  69 /  30  70  90   0
Spaceport                55  75  51  70 /  20  60  90   0
Lake Roberts             48  64  43  60 /  50  90 100  30
Hurley                   51  69  45  62 /  40  80  90  10
Cliff                    57  70  50  67 /  70  90  90  30
Mule Creek               52  64  45  62 /  90  90  80  40
Faywood                  54  69  48  61 /  30  70  90   0
Animas                   56  73  49  67 /  20  60  70  10
Hachita                  54  75  49  66 /  10  50  70   0
Antelope Wells           55  76  52  70 /  10  60  80   0
Cloverdale               54  67  49  63 /  20  70  90  10

TX

None.

NM

Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.