Indianapolis, Indiana

• Light showers or drizzle possible at times through early Monday
• Mild through mid week, with Tuesday the warmest day with highs in the mid 70s.
• Active weather with thunderstorms and heavy rain possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
• Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend

Guidance continues to depict a milder and somewhat more active pattern, particularly during the middle of the coming week.

A broad and disorganized upper level wave will continue to bring widespread cloud cover to the area at least through tonight, and perhaps into Monday as well, though Monday will likely see more of transition back to high cloud ahead of the larger and much more intense system set to impact the area mid week.

PoPs will be kept to the slight chance or low chance categories through early Monday as moisture will be somewhat disjointed, with substantial low level dry air being gradually saturated from aloft, and the airmass aloft drying as this occurs. This may produce weak showers or even drizzle as the lower level moisture shallows out tonight into early Monday, but in any case, any measurable amounts that occur will be extremely light, with the primary impact of the system being the cloud cover limiting diurnal temperature ranges.

Focus then shifts to the mid week, system, featuring a complex series of upper level closed lows and a fairly potent surface cyclone - highly amplified upper level jet structure will lead to a slow moving system, which will likely provide a break of dry conditions at least through midday Tuesday if not longer. PoPs will be highest with frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, as strongly boundary parallel flow is likely to confine much of the precipitation to the immediate vicinity of the front.

Fairly strong shear will accompany the front, which may produce some embedded thunderstorms, and perhaps a low chance for a shear dominant strong storm or two in a high shear/low CAPE scenario, though at the moment forecast profiles show poor lapse rates and very minimal instability.

Low shower chances may linger into the late week and perhaps portions of the weekend depending upon how the aforementioned complex upper level pattern plays out, which current guidance is very inconsistent with.

Temperatures will be mild but fairly solidly above normal early in the week, with the cold front bringing them down, but still around seasonal normals, which for the Indy area are roughly 40 and 60 degrees for lows and highs respectively.

Impacts

• Showers possible mainly south, brief MVFR possible BMG

Discussion

Mainly mid and high cloud are expected through the night, with ceilings lowering a bit during the day today, but remaining well into VFR ranges.

An upper level wave may produce some weak showers across portions of the area, primarily the southern half. Will carry VCSH at all but LAF for a time, and PROB30 groups for slightly higher chances at BMG. Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, MVFR ceilings will be possible at BMG.

Winds will be below 10KT through the period, generally out of the east tonight, turning southerly during the day, and back to the southeast overnight Sunday night.

None.