Topeka, Kansas

-Cloudy and mild today.

-A strong system brings potential for severe thunderstorms Monday.

-Cooler and drier weather then expected through the middle of next week.

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS early this morning shows an amplified trough axis associated with mid-level low pressure off the coast of northern California, and broad southwest flow with moisture transport across the Four Corners and toward the southern/central High Plains. Shortwave energy is moving to the east of the area. Stratus looks to hold over the area today but southerly flow and low level WAA ahead of the west coast system will allow for some warming to near 70 degrees. WAA and divergence aloft could be enough lift for a few light rain showers today, but will keep chances low.

The western system will quickly progress eastward, inducing lee cyclogenesis this evening and tonight. POPs increase tonight and Monday morning from west to east with an initial area of PVA ahead of the main trough axis. A 50 to 60 kt LLJ sets up tonight and sfc winds begin to increase as the pressure gradient increases. Gusts pick up as boundary layer mixing commences Monday morning, with some 40 to 45 mph gusts possible throughout the day. Instability will increase slightly with moisture advection, but overall instability still appears fairly limited at less than 1000 J/kg along and ahead of an approaching front. Shear parameters still look impressive. HREF has effective shear around 50 kts and low level plenty of SRH to support rotating updrafts. With ample shear and forcing, the severity of storms that develop in central KS later in the day will largely depend on the amount of instability present. Still, confidence is good in at least some initial supercells that will be capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. Storm mode may favor more clusters or linear segments eastward with a damaging wind threat continuing. The severe threat should diminish toward the MO state line as instability wanes during the late evening hours.

Models agree more on the mid-level low becoming cutoff over the area on Tuesday, possibly keeping some wet weather around, especially as the low pivots to the north and east. Eventually, high pressure moves in as the low approaches the Great Lakes, bringing a more seasonable cool and dry air mass to northeast Kansas. Lows are expected to be in the 40s with highs in the 60s through mid and late week. POPs then increase again next weekend.

IFR stratus will impact airports early this period. Gradual improvement to MVFR is expected around midday with a brief period of VFR possible this evening before lower CIGS build back in. Winds start to increase ahead of an approaching storm system tonight and will gust to 25 to 30 kts by the end of this period.

None.