Shreveport, Louisiana

New AVIATION

• Warm, humid, and drier conditions will return today and Monday, before more widespread and wetting rains from a large band of showers and thunderstorms overspread the region late Monday night through Tuesday.
• While storm intensities should be weakening late Monday night across Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas, the threat for isolated strong to severe storms will exist over the region Tuesday as they push east along a cold front.
• Cooler and drier conditions will spill into the area in wake of the cold frontal passage for mid and late week, with temperatures returning to more seasonal readings.

Local observations are coming into good agreement with short-term models suggesting that areas of dense fog will be possible across portions of east and northeast Texas as well as southwest Arkansas later this morning. Went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the above mentioned areas and also included portions of north Louisiana. /05/

While the evening water vapor imagery indicates shortwave troughing having already ejected NE into NE AR and the Lower MS Valley, isentropic ascent continues to contribute to isolated to scattered -SHRA redevelopment early this morning across from Lower Toledo Bend Country across Cntrl LA and SCntrl AR. Deepening drier air in wake of the trough remains progged to mix E across these areas through and after daybreak, which should help to taper this development while the best forcing spreads farther E into MS. In wake of the rains though, areas of FG have developed across portions of E TX early this morning, with the FG more patchy across extreme SE OK/adjacent SW AR/NW LA. This should change though as we approach daybreak as the areas of FG develop farther E as the -SHRA diminish, although it remains unclear as to how extensive any dense FG may become, and thus, have held off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now and will continue to monitor trends later this morning. Weak isentropic ascent may linger through the afternoon though over the Ern zones which may aid in continued isolated -SHRA development, but otherwise, warmer, more humid and mostly dry conditions will return to the region today as the morning FG/low clouds gradually lift, potentially giving way to peaks of sun this afternoon.

Upper ridging will begin to build E and amplify over the Srn Plains today, ahead of longwave troughing now over the W coast, which will translate E through the Great Basin this afternoon/evening, and into the Rockies/Four Corners Region Monday morning. The return of low cigs is expected late tonight from the ESE, with the pressure gradient tightening to our W Monday ahead of leeside cyclogenesis over NE CO, which will lift NE into the Cntrl Plains allowing the dryline to mix E into WCntrl TX/Wrn OK. While subsidence beneath the ridging Monday will maintain very warm and dry conditions, deepening convection will develop along the advancing dryline through the day Monday, before the attendant cold front overtakes the bndry and helps to reinforce the convection E into Cntrl/Ern OK and N TX by Monday evening. While adequate instability/lapse rates coupled with strong forcing along the dryline/cold front will favor the threat for strong to severe convection Monday afternoon over the Srn Plains, these storms should weaken as they approach the region by/after 06Z Tuesday. Timing amongst the various medium range guidance remains consistent with the convective line entering the region around/after 06Z, while slowly progressing E across the region overnight through much of the day Tuesday. This timing would favor the potential for moderate MLCapes developing across the warm/moist sector Tuesday mainly from Deep E TX across much of LA and possibly as far N as Srn AR, with adequate shear in the mostly unidirectional flow contributing to the continued threat for at least isolated strong to severe storms across these areas, with locally gusty/damaging winds the primary threat. Widespread QPF totals of 1-2+ inches still appear a good bet over much of the area with the next round of rain, before cooler and drier air begins to spill E in wake of the fropa for the middle and latter part of the new work week.

While the medium range guidance suggests that a zonal flow will set up over the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley in wake of the midweek trough passage, another progressive trough is progged to sweep E by late week. However, it remains uncertain as to whether enough low level moisture will return and favor isolated -SHRA development during the Thursday night-Friday night timeframe. In any case, temps will remain seasonal through the remainder of the extended period.

15

For the 01/12Z TAF period, IFR/LIFR conditions across much of the airspace this morning to gradually improve to low VFR through mid-morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings to return after 02/06Z. Patchy light rain and drizzle possible across MLU/ELD through daybreak this morning. Otherwise, winds light and variable around 5 kts or less through today to become southeast after 02/00Z. /05/

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

SHV  81  65  83  67 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  81  64  83  66 /  30  10  10  10
DEQ  78  62  82  64 /   0  10  10  90
TXK  79  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  60
ELD  80  62  81  65 /  20  10  10  30
TYR  82  65  85  67 /   0  10  10  70
GGG  81  63  84  67 /   0  10  10  50
LFK  84  64  84  67 /  10  10  10  20

AR

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ059-070.

LA

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ001-002-010-017.

OK

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ077.

TX

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.