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Area Forecast Discussion · RLX

Charleston, West Virginia

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1754 Hendrickson Drive, South Charleston, WV 25303, United States of America

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Product header AFDRLX·FXUS61 KRLX 010937
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Charleston WV
AWIPS ID
AFDRLX
WMO heading
FXUS61 KRLX 010937
Sequence
943

WHAT HAS CHANGED

12Z aviation discussion update.

Timing of the mid to late week system is trending slower.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much of the area should remain dry into early next week, then a system brings widespread precipitation chances mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Although mostly cloudy conditions will persist as a shortwave approaches from the west, high pressure and dry air lingering in the low-levels are expected to maintain dry conditions within the forecast area today. A few showers may edge into the area, mainly along and west of the Ohio River, as high pressure retreats east and the shortwave passes overhead tonight into Monday.

The next opportunity for precipitation arrives when an upper trough and associated systems pivot into the Middle Ohio Valley mid to late week. Discrepancies in forecast models lead to low confidence in precipitation amounts and the timing of the systems.

Temperatures will remain above normal though at least the middle of the week. Cooler air transported down into the area by the aforementioned upper trough should allow temperatures to become more seasonable for the end of the week.

AVIATION

09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VFR is expected to continue across the area while SCT to OVC cloud cover moves overhead. An isolated shower or two could be possible in the vicinity of HTS/PKB early Monday morning, though confidence is low enough to leave mention out of the TAFs for now.

South to southeast flow will remain light across the lowlands while 15-20kt breezes are expected along the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or two could be possible tonight into Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 11/01/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EST 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation mid to late week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WV

None.

OH

None.

KY

None.

VA

None.

DISCUSSION...20AVIATION...20

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Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

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  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

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