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Area Forecast Discussion · RAH

Raleigh, North Carolina

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1005 Capability Drive, Isle Forest, Raleigh, NC 27606, United States of America

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Product header AFDRAH·FXUS62 KRAH 011108
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
AWIPS ID
AFDRAH
WMO heading
FXUS62 KRAH 011108
Sequence
535

WHAT HAS CHANGED

  • Lowered shower and QFP chances, and warmed temperatures mid-week through the weekend. What else is new?

KEY MESSAGES

As of 125 AM Sunday

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high clouds the rest of this weekend.

2) Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through Friday night or Saturday. Continued very warm mid through late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 125 AM Sunday

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high clouds the rest of this weekend.

S and SW flow ahead of a mid-level short wave trough currently over the central plains will spread abundant mid and high clouds across our area through the rest of the weekend. But it will remain dry given the stable low levels and relative minimum in pwat and low level dwpts. The current airmass will support highs within a few deg of seasonal averages.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through Friday night or Saturday. Continued very warm from mid through late week. A bit cooler (but still above normal temperatures).

There is a chance of showers starting Wednesday night in the west, then progressing NE over our region Thursday and Thursday night. However, confidence remains low given the spread in the models and the seemingly endless "kicking the can" down the road on days 5-7. Even a week ago, models (we) were advertising increasing shower chances on days 5-7. Yet, it has yet to verify. This next chance of showers is advertised as a large spoke of energy tracks NE across there region during Thursday with the main upper trough well to our NW over the Midwest at that time. Thus, this forecast will likely continue to be refined over time as models further adjust on the timing and strength of the energy this far SE at that time. Regardless, the SE upper ridge shifts just offshore. The south to southwest flow ahead of the trough upstream will keep temperatures a good 10-15 degrees (if not more) above normal Wednesday through Friday. Lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s is more typical of early September.

Then, all bets are off for the weekend as the models give and take. Right now it appears that the main dynamics of the next upper trough will again pass to our west and north this weekend, meaning low chances of showers and continued warmth, but only 5-8 degrees above normal instead of 15.

AVIATION

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

As of 609 AM Sunday

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected with abundant mid and high clouds over the region. NE sfc winds 13kt or less.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the upcoming work week with a small chance of some stratus/fog on Wednesday morning and a better chance on Thursday morning. There is also a chance of light rain in the west on Wednesday and areawide on Thursday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

DISCUSSION...np/BadgettAVIATION...np

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

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