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Area Forecast Discussion · PBZ

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

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192 Shafer Rd, Coraopolis, PA, United States of America

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Product header AFDPBZ·FXUS61 KPBZ 011127
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
AWIPS ID
AFDPBZ
WMO heading
FXUS61 KPBZ 011127
Sequence
753

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures before rain chances return by mid to late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure centered eastern NY/eastern PA will continue to maintain dry weather across the region today and tonight. Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area in warm and moist advection aloft ahead of a shortwave across the Midwest. This shortwave trough is expected to weaken as it moves east, and crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region on Monday. At the surface, a weak warm front is also progged to lift NE on Monday. Moisture is expected to be limited with this system, though a few sprinkles or brief light rain is possible, mainly across OH, as the wave and surface front cross. Only a brief mention of slight chance POPs were included mainly west of I-77 on Monday.

A ridge is then expected to build across the eastern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of a deepening central CONUS trough. This ridge should result in dry weather and the warmest temperatures of the week, with rising 500 mb heights. While it is not likely to set any record highs, temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above average.

The central CONUS trough, and associated surface front, are expected to track eastward and approach the Upper Ohio Valley region late Wednesday. Rain chances gradually increase late in the day, peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the trough and surface front cross the region. Model ensembles then indicate broad upper troughing will persist across the NE CONUS into Saturday, with periodic rain chances continuing as individual shortwaves rotate through the main trough.

AVIATION

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VFR conditions will be maintained through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains in control. Mid and upper level clouds will continue to stream across the region ahead of a shortwave to our west, but no flight restrictions are foreseen. Light wind will continue out of a southeast direction as the high shifts east.

Outlook... VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase late Wednesday and Thursday with approaching low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

PA

None.

OH

None.

WV

None.

DISCUSSION...CLAVIATION...WM

Help & About

Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

Offices issue one at least twice a day, early morning and afternoon, and update it as things change. It's written in sections, usually a synopsis, the near and long term, and the outlook for pilots, mariners and fire weather, ending with any watches, warnings and advisories in effect. Forecasters write in a shorthand of their own; the NWS glossary explains most of it.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.