Norman/Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

New AVIATION

• Areas of fog will continue into Sunday morning.
• Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.
• Near-normal temperatures will arrive by the middle part of the week with cooler nighttime temperatures.

Patchy drizzle and fog will continue early this morning with the potential for some dense fog as we approach sunrise. Will continue to monitor for this potential. Otherwise, expect any drizzle to quickly end Sunday morning with some fog lingering into the mid-morning hours. Skies will remain cloudy through much of the day, although some breaks may occur across south-central, southeast into portions of central Oklahoma by afternoon. Even with the cloudy conditions, the south winds along with the lack of rainfall should result in warmer temperatures across the area by afternoon(70s to near 80).

As the upper low over inter-mountain west and the lead sub-tropical wave lifts east and northeast tonight, lee troughing(cyclogenesis) will occur, which will result increasing south winds Sunday night. As the lead wave moves into the panhandles after midnight, a few showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across western and northwestern Oklahoma.

The aforementioned cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining low level jet through the day Monday. This will also assist in advecting mid 60 dewpoints northward into western north Texas and southwest, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma during the day. Many of the models also shift the dryline further east through much of western Oklahoma compared to earlier runs. The lead wave may be responsible for this faster movement. The NAM being an exception holding the dryline closer the 100th meridian until late in the day.

The lead wave will also provide sufficient lift for some isolated to widely scattered activity through the morning and into the afternoon. This may limit instability to some degree at least through midday into the early afternoon hours, but as we go through afternoon the probability for severe storms will increase.

As the main upper low moves across the panhandles and into western Oklahoma by Monday afternoon expect more robust storms to develop along the dryline and then move east and northeast. There remains differences in the models with regards to location of the dryline as well as low level wind directions and boundary layer thermal profiles that could play a significant role, especially in the tornado potential across central into northern Oklahoma late Monday afternoon and evening. That being said, we do anticipate as initial convective development occurs, supercells will be possible with the potential for damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail. This should give way to more linear line segments as we go through the evening with embedded supercells with mainly damaging wind gusts as well as the potential for QLCS tornadoes. All this activity will move east during the evening and overnight with severe potential lingering toward sunrise in the southeast.

Another aspect with this activity will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Although expect the activity to move rather quickly off to the northeast, the near record PWATs in place and a deep layer of nearly parallel winds to the surface boundary may lead to some isolated heavy rainfall.

Also, associated cold front will sweep south and east across the area on Tuesday, bringing a somewhat cooler, drier airmass into Oklahoma and western north Texas. After a day with highs in the upper 70s and low/mid 80s Monday, Tuesday will see highs from the middle 60s in the northwest to the middle 70s in the southeast with a brisk northeast wind.

The upper low takes a more northern track than previous forecast as we go through the day Tuesday, which should limit any wrap-around precip impacting the area. The drier air will especially impact overnight lows as temperatures fall into the 40s Tuesday night.

More tranquil weather expected for Wednesday with slightly warmer than normal temperatures and light winds. Models then show a weaker shortwave coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers may occur on Thursday, but the models show the wave weakening as it moves across the area. May end up with mainly an increase in clouds across the northern half of the area during the day, cooling temperatures there by a degree or two from previous day.

Northwest flow then develops as we approach the weekend with the potential for a few shortwave diving south through the central and southern Plains. Model differences increase by this time with regards to the strength of these individual wave and the potential for additional precip chances.

LIFR conditions are anticipated to continue over the next 2 to 4 hours across portions of the area, with mainly MVFR conditions by early afternoon. There is a chance of strong to severe storms across western Oklahoma after midnight tonight that could lead to wind gusts up to 60 mph, along with continued MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, expect conditions to become VFR across central Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight.

Oklahoma City OK  74  62  77  56 /  10   0  70  70
Hobart OK         75  64  82  55 /   0  10  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  64  83  56 /   0   0  60  40
Gage OK           70  61  79  50 /   0  60  30  10
Ponca City OK     73  61  78  55 /   0  10  80  70
Durant OK         80  63  84  61 /   0   0  20 100

OK

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX

None.