New York/Upton, New York

No significant changes.

1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions should continue into mid week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain will be late next week.

The driest stretch of the year so far will persist in response to confluent NW upper flow giving way to East Coast upper ridging thru mid week. At the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead today, and then passes gradually offshore through mid week.

Expect mostly sunny skies today (although an increasing cirrus deck may filter sunshine), dry and seasonably cool. High temps will be slightly milder than those of Sat, generally in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Slightly milder temps for tonight/early Mon mrng with light return flow developing. This does bring the potential for patchy fog in addition to patchy frost conditions for outlying areas.

Conditions gradually moderate early to mid next week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow. High temps will incrementally rise through the 60s each day, to near 10 degrees above seasonable (upper 60s/lower 70s) by Wed/Thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise from the 30s/40s Mon morning to 50s/near 60 by Thu morning (close to normal high temps for parts of the area this time of year).

There remains general agreement on a frontal system and/or low pressure affecting the area late in the week into the weekend with a wetting rainfall. The 00Z GFS timing suggests Fri and Sat the best chances for rain, but the NBM has not latched on to this trend yet. The AI-GFS is faster, which supports sticking with the NBM attm. Notably the AI-GFS is dry with the upr low at the end of the event, whereas the other modeling produces rain as the H5 low swings thru.

High pressure remains in control through the period, sliding just offshore today.

VFR.

Light N winds into the early morning, then back NW-W during the late morning and W-SW in the afternoon. Coastal terminals should see some sea breeze enhancement and/or winds backing a little more southerly in the afternoon. Overnight, winds go light and variable at many terminals. Tomorrow, winds SW 7-10 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

No unscheduled AMD expected.

Monday through Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Sub-SCA cond should continue on all waters through at least Wed night as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient. Hazardous seas over 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters out 20 nm Fri via increasing S-SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system.

CT

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.

NY

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-078>081.

NJ

None.

MARINE

None.