San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, California

New AVIATION, MARINE

• Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore through the Sunday
• Hazardous Beach Conditions Monday and Tuesday
• Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday
• Potential for light rain Tuesday

(Tonight through Monday)

Popcorn shower activity focused over the interior CEntral Coast earlier in the nigh has since faded or moved eastward into the Central.

Focus quickly turns westward as a low pressure is now entering the northern coastal waters. The low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries are producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. KMUX radar even picked up some weak rotation with the stronger cells, but they`re pulsing on any rotation. Environmental parameters show less instability and shear are present the closer one gets toward the coastline. As such, expect the shower activity to hold together into Sunday mid- morning, but not expecting any thunderstorms over land. By Sunday afternoon any showers will end with increasing sunshine. Rainfall amounts will be a trace to 0.25". Winds increase by the low pressure/cold front with breezy conditions at the coast.

Coastal flooding remains possible along the bayshore locations of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday at 6 PM PST.

Tonight through Monday - Winds ease overnight with clearing skies. Given the recent rain, decreasing winds, and clearing skies patchy fog is possible Monday morning. Warmer and drier conditions to kick off the work week.

(Monday night through next Saturday)

Upper level ridge moves eastward as another upper level low/trough takes aim at the Bay Area Tuesday. As such, the next round of rain, albeit light, will move Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts with this system will be greatest over the North Bay with amounts 0.10-0.30", Bay Area is less than 0.10", and Central Coast is trace to nothing.

Thereafter, zonal flow to ridging develops by Wednesday and continues into next weekend. If the forecast holds, temperatures will return to the 70s by Friday possibly a few low 80s interior on Saturday.

Currently LIFR-VFR with a cold front trekking from northwest to southeast across the area. STS is currently observing fog due to ample low-level moisture, light winds, and clearing skies. Moderate confidence on this continuing through mid-to-late morning and remaining isolated to STS. The bulk of the rain shower activity is expected to be done by 12Z; however, isolated post-frontal rain showers will remain possible through the morning, especially for coastal terminals. Low probability (less than 20% chance) for thunderstorms with the best chances over the waters, off to our east, and along the cold front that is on its way out of the area. Skies will quickly clear and onshore winds will increase in the post-frontal environment. VFR is expected to prevail with brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities possible with rain showers, likely to MVFR.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. The bulk of the rain shower activity has ended; however, isolated post-frontal rain showers are possible through the remainder of the morning. Winds will veer to become northwesterly mid-to-late morning, increasing this afternoon into the evening. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Winds will diminish and back to become light and southeasterly tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds at or below FL070 are expected through mid-to-late morning with conditions beginning to improve between 15Z and 16Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and MVFR with northeasterly flow at SNS. The bulk of the rain is just reaching the terminals and is expected to be over by 12Z. Isolated post-frontal rain showers and ceilings on the cusp of MVFR/VFR will remain possible through the morning. Diurnal winds will prevail with drainage flow overnight and onshore flow during the day.

Rain showers with a slight chance for thunderstorms will continue
this morning. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front will
increase  and veer to become northwesterly this afternoon.
Hazardous  conditions for small craft are expected across the
coastal waters  through this evening as a result. Gentle to
moderate breezes and  moderate seas will prevail, building to
become rough in the outer  waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

CA

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.