Chanhassen/Twin Cities, Minnesota

• Widespread soaking rain Monday trough Wednesday. Amounts of 1-2" expected, approaching 3" across west-central Minnesota.
• Highs in the 60s today through Tuesday (in western WI) will fall back into the 40s and 50s the rest of the week, but will still be running around 5 degrees above normal.

It`s a cloudy start to the day as weak shortwave energy works in aloft, with southerly winds at the surface keeping temperatures and dewpoints overnight above our average high for November 1st. It`s those dewpoints that have been driving some fog out there. Central and northern MN have been on the cusp of fog all night and that will continue through about 10am. Outside of central MN, any brief clearings that develop quickly start to fill in with fog, but those clearings have been quickly filling back in with mid/upper clouds which has led to a bit of a whack-a-mole setup for fog overnight. Down in Iowa, we are seeing a patch of clearing skies down around Des Moines and most of the short term guidance and the NBM shows these lower cloud cover skies coming up into eastern MN and western WI later today. Given the fact that we will be starting the day with temepratures still in the 50s, we`ll have no problem warming into the 60s. Depending on how much sun we get today, 925mb temps near 15C will support highs in the low 70s, which is what the NBM 90th percentile has for highs for Mankato, Rochester, the Twin Cities, Eau Claire, and points in between.

Tonight, the longwave trough moving across the Rockies this morning will be heading out on to the Plains. Right now, this trough is becoming detached from the northern stream, with a southern stream jet streak being the feature that will push the trough out into the central CONUS. This southern stream jet streak will kick out into the Great Lakes tonight, leaving the longwave trough in a zone of weak upper flow until the next southern stream jet streak arrives midweek. Models are in good agreement through Monday night on the initial low pressure moving into central MN, but how this upper low and related surface low/s evolve the rest of the week is more uncertain. At the very least, we look to keep periods of rain showers going through Wednesday and possibly continuing into Thursday.

Where models maintain fairly good agreement is with the initial low that comes into central MN Monday night. This has shifted north some in the last 24 hours, but the idea of a large shield of moderate to heavy rain moving across the area during the day on Monday remains. Monday night, a dry slot will move into southern MN as this low becomes occluded. PWATs with this initial push of moisture will be near 1.6". The highest observed PWAT we`ve had in the month of November was 1.47" back with a 12z sounding on the 10th in 2022. Once this low hits the occlusion phase, models start to differ on how this and subsequent lows will evolve between MN/IA and WI through Thursday. As this system slowly churns across the area, we`ll see periods of deformation rain come and go Tuesday and Wednesday. With this degree of moisture moving in, we continue to see some incredible QPF values for November, with storm totals over 3" still possible from northeast SD into central MN, which would be more than twice our normal liquid precipitation for the entire month November.

By the end of the week, split flow will take shape as the broad trough moves into the Great Lakes. This will dry us out to end the week, but we may have one more shortwave to deal with on Saturday as a clipper type wave drops down out of Canada on its way around the eastern trough. Other than that though, the split flow looks to result in seasonably mild and dry weather into the middle of the month. For the winter fans out there wondering when we may finally start seeing snow and cold temperatures, you have to run out into the extended runs of the ECMWF and GFS to find any inkling of colder weather at the end of the month with our exceptionally mild fall weather continuing for the foreseeable future.

Went with a far more pessimistic category forecast for STC/AXN with dense fog setting up over central MN, with lesser amounts of fog for the other locations. A pocket of clearing via satellite has allowed some patchy fog to build over southern sites, however there is also enough stratus lingering around to keep it from become denser. Winds are mainly 140-170 at or below 7kts with most sites below 5kts, meaning the fog will be slow to dissipate until they pick up after 16z. A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR is expected through 16-18z at which point we should lift and scatter out enough to push most sites to VFR, before CIGS start to drop again late in the period ahead of our next round of RA/SHRA that will move in on Monday.

KMSP...Went with a VFR forecast to start with the main MVFR impact being patchy fog underneath a gap in the stratus that is present this morning. Forecast confidence is pretty low however as the stratus underneath the upper level clouds appears to be moving back towards the terminal, which would stop fog chances but also bring a chance for MVFR CIGS to return. For now, the forecast favors the fog route for category impacts as opposed to CIG.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/MON...RA/IFR likely. Wind SE 15-20G30kts.TUE...RA/IFR. Wind W 10-15kts.WED...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MN

None.

WI

None.