Product header AFDMFR·FXUS66 KMFR 010919
- Title
- Area Forecast Discussion
- Issued by
- National Weather Service Medford OR
- AWIPS ID
- AFDMFR
- WMO heading
- FXUS66 KMFR 010919
- Sequence
- 455
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions are expected today and Monday.
- Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal into early next week.
- There is a high risk for sneaker waves along the coast this evening through Monday afternoon.
- Middle to late next week, potential for additional disturbances to bring light to moderate precipitation.
DISCUSSION
Showers have almost completed dissipated across the area early this morning, although radar imagery shows a few isolated returns here and there. With high pressure building quickly in behind the departing trough, all shower activity should come to an end by sunrise. With high pressure overhead, cool to cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures and dry weather are expected through Monday. Areas of morning fog are expected for inland valleys and along the coast.
Models have trended faster with a weak low moving onshore over southern Oregon and northern California around Tuesday. This will bring chances for light showers across the area. Then, a weakening front moves into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday with additional light precipitation, mainly along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. A potentially stronger front follows over the weekend. However, it should be noted that models and ensembles continue to have trouble with the long term pattern, showing significant differences for late next week period on the track and timing of any fronts across the various suites and with each run time. So, confidence is low on the details for precipitation during this period, and the forecast is likely to change.
AVIATION
01/12Z TAFs...Showers have diminished across the area, but with clearing mid to upper level clouds, fog and low stratus are expected to develop in area valleys by daybreak. The resulting areas of IFR or even LIFR, mainly in Coos and Douglas counties, including the Coquille Valley and Roseburg/KRBG, should burn off through the morning, with VFR then expected through the afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail.
MARINE
Updated 130 AM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026...Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength through the weekend. West-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters today into Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to around 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This will result in steep combined seas of over 10 feet on Monday. Southeast wind speeds will increase at least slightly on Tuesday with seas expected to remain high and steep. Seas gradually and briefly lower Tuesday night into Wednesday. The pattern then remains somewhat active through next week.
BEACH HAZARDS
Updated 130 AM PST Sunday, November 1, 2026... Long period WNW swell Will build into the area Sunday and persist into early next week. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast this afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent Sunday night through Monday during the incoming high tides. Wave periods drop to 15 seconds on Monday night, then below 15 seconds on Tuesday; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
- OR
-
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening for ORZ021-022.
- CA
-
None.
- PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS
-
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376.