Lubbock, Texas

New AVIATION

• Fog continues through this morning, mainly on the Caprock.
• Storm chances return late Sunday night through Monday morning, primarily across the far southwest Panhandle and northern South Plains. Some storms may be severe.
• Breezy westerly winds remain expected on Monday, with gusts up to 45 mph possible.

Skies have finally cleared out over a majority of the forecast area. This however looks to be short-lived as forecast soundings indicate full saturation below 850 mb overspreading the area in the hours before sunrise. As such, areas of fog and low cloud cover are expected, with areas on the Caprock seeing the highest potential for reduced visibilities. Use caution if traveling. Despite an upper ridge, clouds will remain trapped under an low-level inversion through the day. Slightly more elevated southerly winds around 15 mph and height rises from the aforementioned ridge will push highs generally in the low 70s. Precipitation is not expected outside of some possible drizzle.

A deep trough will track across the west Sunday and will displace the ridge from having the majority of the influence later Sunday evening. Associated showers and thunderstorms will reach the far southwest Panhandle before quickly tracking across northern portions of the area Monday morning. The overall timing generally does not favor severe weather, however with modest CAPE and shear, severe storms cannot be completely ruled out along with a non-zero tornado potential.

The aforementioned storms should be quite fast moving with subsequent fast steering flow. The dryline looks to move completely east of the forecast area by the afternoon hours. If it slows down at all, a few storms could develop off the far eastern Caprock. The main concern however for Monday afternoon remains the breezy westerly winds. There are two closed lows that will develop in the lee of the Rockies. The stronger of which will be well to the north, reaching South Dakota. The southern low is slightly more disorganized and not as compact. Thus it is not the best setup for the very strong wind events we see here mostly in the winter. That said, winds aloft will be favorable to mix down with surface gusts potentially reaching 45 mph. Winds will diminish overnight into Tuesday and gradually turn more northerly behind a surface cold front. Highs Tuesday will fall into the low-to-mid 60s although the cooler dry air will allow for skies to clear. A few weak disturbances will move around our area through the remainder of the week, however no precipitation chances are expected at this time. Highs will remain slightly below average, generally in the mid 60s.

IFR CIGs continue at KLBB and KPVW and will persist this morning. Visibility restrictions will also continue through mid-morning (with some non-zero <1/2SM FG potential), but BR/FG should dissipate by midday. Currently, it appears likely that IFR CIGs will persist at KLBB/KPVW throughout the day with no meaningful improvement in conditions expected. Confidence is lower at KCDS, but MVFR should prevail there with some drops into IFR possible.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ021>023-027>030.