Lake Charles, Louisiana

New AVIATION

• Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with dense fog can be expected into Monday.
• An upper level low will move a cold front across late Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.
• Cooler more seasonably temperatures with dry conditions can be expected behind the front on Wednesday through the end of next week.

A few lingering showers are still in the region as the remnants of this afternoons showers are fading away. Rainfall amounts were on the higher side of the forecast with SWLA receiving between 1 to 3 inches of rain with lower amounts for central Louisiana and Acadiana. Still most of the region received a wetting rain. With the moist airmass from the system and wet ground from todays rain dense fog is a concern. A dense fog advisory in effect from midnight until 9 am Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday a ridge will build in place over the region limiting active weather with PoPs dropping back down into the low teens. On Tuesday, a cutoff low will dig south from the Rockies with a surface low developing in the northern Great Plains. Ahead of the front winds will become southernly pulling Gulf moisture north. With more moist air our weather will become humid and warm. PWATs will also increase rising into the 90th percentile with values between 1.8 to 2.0 inches. The WPC has placed our area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding on Tuesday. In addition to the flooding risk there are some signals for strong to severe weather as the front moves through our area. While guidance shows the best environment to our north CAPE values for our CWA are around 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear between 20 and 30 knots. These kinematics are enough to support organized convection with a QLCS looking the most likely with this forecast package.

With the frontal passage still several days away there is a lot of uncertainty with the forecast, especially when it comes to specific storm threats.

After the front we will finally start to see more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s. Along with north to northwest winds.

Lingering showers are moving north of AEX and should be the last of the convection for the day. Overnight the main concern will be fog causing IFR/LIFR visibility from 10Z to 14Z. Ceilings will remain low with MVFR to IFR impacts for most of the TAF period.

After sunrise conditions will slowly improve with both VIS and CIGs improving to VFR.

Winds will remain light to moderate from the east for the rest of the weekend and Monday. By Tuesday, winds will shift to become onshore before the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening will bring offshore winds around 15 to 20 knots. With the front showers and thunderstorms are expected.

Behind the front winds will be from the north to northwest around 10 knots.

Much needed rain was received today along as a humid airmass moved into the region. Rainfall amounts were more widespread than forecasted with most of the region receiving a wetting rain.

MinRH values will be between 60 and 70% for Sunday and Monday with 100% moisture recovery each night. The next chance for rain will be Tuesday as a cold front moves across the Gulf coast.

LA

Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX

None.

GM

None.