Northern Indiana, Indiana

- Light rain showers continue at times through this evening
  (20-30% chances).

• Much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
• Highs will be well into the 70s on Tuesday with breezy conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of the week.

Scattered, light rain showers/drizzle will persist through today as broad 295-300K isentropic upglide continues. This isentropic ascent is very gentle though and we are still battling some dry air concerns so there will be plenty of rain-free areas as well and have maintained just broad-brushed 20 PoP`s through this evening. Best chances appear to be east of I-69 late this afternoon into the evening as models indicate another weak shortwave rippling through the area. This wave exits overnight and isentropic surfaces orient more parallel to increasing southwest flow. Therefore, expect dry conditions to return late tonight through most of the day Tue. Overcast skies today yield highs only in the low/mid 60s. Tue high temp forecast is tricky. Strong SW flow/WAA develops ahead of approaching trough but cloud cover is still a question. Some peaks of sun are likely, especially in our SE, and this could push highs to near record territory (76). Tempered NBM highs downward a bit as they are likely biased by the last few weeks of very warm/sunny conditions. If full sun materializes then it`s possible but expect at least some clouds given degree of moisture streaming into the region.

Very few changes regarding Tue night`s frontal passage. Upper trough and low level cyclone will be rapidly lifting and occluding over the Upper Midwest late Tue. This combined with surface low track toward Lake Superior will support a healthy midlevel dry slot moving into the area Wed morning and bringing a quick end to rain. Maintained categorical PoP`s out of respect for the moisture advection but westward displacement of better mid/upper level dynamics and southward displacement of any meaningful instability will likely leave our area with just some brief, light rain showers late Tue night into Wed morning. Rainfall amounts around 0.25" with no thunder anticipated. While steady/moderate rain ends Wed afternoon, a prolonged period of general cyclonic flow is expected to develop Wed night into next week as several upper lows pinwheel through the Great Lakes. This supports periodic low chances for light rain, particularly downwind of still warm Lake Michigan. The only exception looks to be a brief break in between systems on Sat. Temps return to more seasonable values to end the week but still trending slightly above normal with highs around 60 and lows around 40.

Satellite and observing stations indicate MVFR ceilings are steadily spreading north this morning; quickly closing in on KSBN. Observations in central IN and central IL show IFR ceilings in place; perhaps not completely out of the realm of possibility for our local area for at least a brief time. Weak ascent through an increasingly saturated atmosphere still lends the opportunity for passing light showers or sprinkles today. The low level jet strengthens tonight ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone moving into the Midwest. LLWS may be a concern through most of Tuesday morning before the LLJ eases in the afternoon.

IN

None.

OH

None.

MI

None.

MARINE

None.