Indianapolis, Indiana

• Light showers or drizzle possible at times through early Monday
• Mild through mid week, with Tuesday the warmest day with highs in the mid 70s.
• Active weather with thunderstorms and heavy rain possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
• Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend

Guidance continues to depict a milder and somewhat more active pattern, particularly during the middle of the coming week.

A broad and disorganized upper level wave will continue to bring widespread cloud cover to the area at least through tonight, and perhaps into Monday as well, though Monday will likely see more of transition back to high cloud ahead of the larger and much more intense system set to impact the area mid week.

PoPs will be kept to the slight chance or low chance categories through early Monday as moisture will be somewhat disjointed, with substantial low level dry air being gradually saturated from aloft, and the airmass aloft drying as this occurs. This may produce weak showers or even drizzle as the lower level moisture shallows out tonight into early Monday, but in any case, any measurable amounts that occur will be extremely light, with the primary impact of the system being the cloud cover limiting diurnal temperature ranges.

Focus then shifts to the mid week, system, featuring a complex series of upper level closed lows and a fairly potent surface cyclone - highly amplified upper level jet structure will lead to a slow moving system, which will likely provide a break of dry conditions at least through midday Tuesday if not longer. PoPs will be highest with frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday, as strongly boundary parallel flow is likely to confine much of the precipitation to the immediate vicinity of the front.

Fairly strong shear will accompany the front, which may produce some embedded thunderstorms, and perhaps a low chance for a shear dominant strong storm or two in a high shear/low CAPE scenario, though at the moment forecast profiles show poor lapse rates and very minimal instability.

Low shower chances may linger into the late week and perhaps portions of the weekend depending upon how the aforementioned complex upper level pattern plays out, which current guidance is very inconsistent with.

Temperatures will be mild but fairly solidly above normal early in the week, with the cold front bringing them down, but still around seasonal normals, which for the Indy area are roughly 40 and 60 degrees for lows and highs respectively.

Impacts

• Showers possible at all sites, especially BMG
• MVFR or worse conditions possible late tonight

Discussion

An upper level wave moving through the area is producing widely scattered light showers, and will carry this in some form at all sites today. Ceilings will gradually lower as a dry low level airmass saturates from above, but remain VFR through the day with the possible exception of brief drops to MVFR in precip.

Deterioration to MVFR or worse ceilings, perhaps with some visibility restriction as well, will be possible late tonight, generally in the 04-07Z time frame, with ceilings falling at least to low end MVFR and possibly into the IFR range.

Winds will generally be between 090 and 150 degrees during the period, less than 10KT.

None.