Wichita, Kansas

• Showers and storms could affect central/south central Kansas late tonight with a strong storm possible
• Strong to severe storms possible for Monday afternoon and evening
• Near normal temperatures for Wednesday into next weekend

Dry and quiet weather conditions will be on tap for today with daytime highs slightly above normal. Meanwhile current water vapor satellite imagery shows a lead short wave over southern California with the main upper-level wave over northern California. The lead short wave will race northeast across the Rockies today then reach western Kansas by late tonight. This will spark off elevated showers/storms over western Kansas tonight which will then spread east into central/south central Kansas between 3am-6am. Elevated shear/instability combination is supportive for a few possible strong storms late tonight. Otherwise the line of showers/storms will continue to move slowly east Monday morning reaching southeast Kansas in the afternoon. The environment east of the Kansas turnpike could remain elevated with a few strong storms possible in the afternoon. Otherwise the main focus area we will be monitoring for surface based storm re-development is for locations west of a Salina to Wichita, to Wellington line between 3pm-6pm. This is where high resolution models(HREF/REFS) show increasing probabilities for storm initiation. Surface-6km wind shear and 0-1km SRH are favorable for organized storm development capable of producing severe weather with a few tornadoes possible. Shear orientation vector is parallel to initiating low level boundary which would cause storms to grow upscale into a linear storm mode with damaging winds becoming the main hazard. Once again the key thing to watch will be timing and amount of clearing for the low clouds to help destabilize the atmosphere. The line of storms will move east into southeast Kansas during the evening hours on Monday.

Upper level wave will shift northeast into eastern Nebraska on Tuesday with deformation wrap around rain showers in the morning over central Kansas along with gusty northwest winds. Dry weather expected on Wednesday with models showing another system racing east across the central plains on Thursday. Moisture will be limited with this system which keeps possible precipitation chances rather low. Long range models are showing a healthy upper-level wave diving southeast across the central plains on Saturday which could bring another chance of rain to Kansas.

Poor aviation conditions with low cigs in the IFR/LIFR category will linger over the area through the morning hours. Cigs will gradually rise into the MVFR category for this afternoon with southeast winds increasing. The low clouds will linger into the night hours with southeast winds increasing even more.

None.