Hastings, Nebraska

- Fog possible through the morning hours today with highs in the upper
  50s to low 60s.

• Scattered showers/storms move into the area this evening/tonight.
• A Strong low brings gusty southerly winds on Monday (30-45mph) with potential for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms along a cold front/dryline.
• Northerly winds gusting 40-50mph expected on Tuesday behind the departing low.

It`s a foggy and drizzly morning across the area under low stratus. Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow with a deep trough moving over the West Coast and a ridge centered over the Midwest. Scattered showers/drizzle will largely come to an end by sunrise though foggy weather is expected to linger through the late morning hours. Visibility may drop as low as 1 mile in areas of fog this morning. Widespread cloud coverage today keeps highs confined to the upper 50s to low 60s. As troughing over the western U.S. moves into the Rockies this evening, warm air advection (WAA) develops over the area. The WAA regime will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening/tonight. Southerly winds strengthen throughout the overnight hours, gusting 25-35mph. Showers/storms could bring stronger winds aloft down to the surface (potentially gusting 40-45mph).

The aforementioned deep trough and associated surface low move into the Plains Monday morning. Showers/storms are favored to come to an end by the mid morning hours as the dry slot of the low moves over the area. Gusty southerly winds are expected Monday morning, gusting 30-45mph across the area. This southerly flow will help to advect increasing moisture and instability into the area. A cold front/dryline push into the area Monday afternoon with winds becoming lighter along/close to the front. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the front/dryline Monday afternoon though the exact location of this development is still uncertain. The degree of clearing within the dry slot of the low will help determine just how warm and unstable the atmosphere becomes Monday afternoon. A more unstable atmosphere would bring a higher threat for severe thunderstorms. Still, even a few hundred joules of CAPE could support a few strong to marginally severe storms. Initial storms that form are favored to be discrete (potentially supercellular) but over time storms will form into a line. This line of storms looks to exit eastern portions of the area during the mid evening hours. Overall think the current SPC day 2 outlook for severe thunderstorms seems reasonable which places areas along and southeast of the Tri-Cities in a marginal risk.

Winds shift to the north Monday evening/night behind the cold frontal passage. Winds increase Monday night to Tuesday morning behind the departing low pressure system. These winds gusting 40-50mph are favored to continue throughout the day on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday along the backside of the departing low. Highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s combined with the gusty/strong winds and scattered showers will result in a chilly feel for those outdoors on Tuesday (Wind chills in the upper 30s to low 50s). Drier weather is expected Wednesday onwards with seasonable temperatures each day (highs mid-upper 50s).

An upper level low pressure is over Kansas and Nebraska. This has resulted in increased upper lift across the region with rain showers. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the south to southeast at around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temperatures today will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Rain showers are expected to decrease in coverage tonight with low temperatures generally ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Light rain showers and/or drizzle are expected to continue into Sunday with south to southeast winds continuing across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be a little warmer than today with a strengthening surface trough to the west. Rain showers with some thunderstorms will increase across the area Sunday night as an upper trough to the west moves closer to the region. Low temperatures Sunday night will be warmer than the previous night (lows mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s) as the surface trough to the west expands across the area.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Monday with a cold front moving into the area from the west and northwest. While there is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to the timing of the front, expect highs to generally range from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area on Monday. Storm chances will increase along the front late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s. Rain chances (up to around 50% chance) continue on Tuesday with the upper trough/low over the area. There are some model differences/uncertainty with high temperatures on Tuesday due to uncertainty in the strength of the cooler airmass but expect highs to mostly be in the 50s. Mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night are expected to be in the 30s and 40s.

For KGRI/KEAR Airports

Low ceilings and cloud bases will be the primary aviation concern overnight tonight with cloud bases dropping down into LIFR/IFR classifications for most of 7-19z timeframe. Though dense fog is not expected to become a widespread issue tonight, periods of reduced visibility from fog may still be possible through mainly 16z. Generally speaking, conditions may be quicker to deteriorate and slower to recover for KEAR in comparison to KGRI. Though cloud bases will rise some during the day Sunday, it is unlikely for the overcast ceilings to lift out of the MVFR category.

As for precipitation, most of the showers tonight have subsided with the next potential for light showers increasing late Sunday afternoon to evening. South to southeasterly winds tonight will remain under 10kts with speeds increasing across the morning hours. After 18z, sustaining wind speeds near 15kts will gusts as high as 20-30kts during the remainder of the day and evening Sunday.

NE

None.

KS

None.