Fort Worth-Dallas, Texas

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION

• Dense fog has developed across eastern North and Central Texas and will continue through the rest of the morning.
• The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend.
• Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east.

The main concern this early morning will be the development of low clouds and fog within the moist boundary layer left behind yesterday`s system. Light winds and pockets of clearing will favor increasing coverage of fog towards daybreak, with the greatest potential for widespread fog mainly across East and Central Texas.

Conditions will improve fairly quickly during the late morning as mixing strengthens beneath a transient mid-level ridge. Cloud cover should scatter from west to east, leaving a dry and considerably warmer afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 80s across much of North and Central Texas, with light winds becoming increasingly southerly during the afternoon.

Tonight will remain quiet, however, as a gradual pattern change will be taking place ahead of the next storm system slated to arrive on Monday. A deep trough moving through the Southwest will induce strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the central Plains. The resulting pressure falls will increase southerly flow across Texas overnight while Gulf moisture continues to deepen northward. Lows will remain mild, generally in the lower to middle 60s.

A much more dynamic pattern will develop Monday as the western trough ejects into the Central and Southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis across Kansas will strengthen the pressure gradient across Texas, resulting in sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 40 mph through much of the day.

Strong warm and moist advection will push surface dewpoints into the 60s while temperatures climb into the lower and middle 80s. Most of North and Central Texas should remain dry through at least early afternoon, with the initial convective development favored farther west of our area, along the cold front.

The thermodynamic environment will become increasingly favorable for strong to severe storms Monday evening as stronger ascent spreads east from the southern Rockies. A 40-50 kt LLJ will maintain moisture transport while modest warm surface temperatures yield roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Although mid-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, weak inhibition should allow storms to develop as the front arrives.

Thunderstorm initiation should occur just west/northwest of our region with a mix of supercells or scattered storm clusters. As the storms spread east, storms will quickly transition to a linear mode capable of strong to damaging winds, quick spin up tornadoes and isolated instances of large hail. The overall severe weather threat will be greatest across North Texas, but strong storms may extend farther south as the front moves through the region.

The front is slated to move through North Texas early Tuesday, progressing southward into Central Texas by the afternoon. The severe weather threat will quickly shift east of our region as the system continues it eastward trajectory

A drier air mass will follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing will produce northwest winds of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the 70s despite increasing sunshine.

High pressure will continue to dominate through the rest of the week, leading to a stretch of quiet and seasonable fall weather. Afternoon highs will generally remain in the lower to middle 70s with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Another upper-level disturbance may traverse the central Plains late in the week, however, current guidance keeps the better moisture and precipitation well north of our region. Dry and pleasant conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week.

Concerns - Lowering ceilings/visibility through the morning.

Low ceilings and reduced visibilities are now developing over parts of North and Central Texas, impacting the D10 terminals closer to 09z. By 11z, IFR conditions are looking probable with a short period of LIFR possible. At KACT, a similar trend is expected given slightly more low-level moisture leading to the development of LIFR conditions.

The lower ceilings and visibility should begin to gradually improve late this morning and into the afternoon. Ceilings will quickly lift to VFR across D10 by around 18z.

Winds will remain light and generally out of the southeast throughout the day. Wind speeds will remain below 6 kts today, with a gradual increase in wind speeds expected tomorrow.

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  67  85  64 /   0   0  10  90
Waco                84  65  85  65 /   0   0   0  90
Paris               80  62  84  65 /   0   0  20  90
Denton              81  63  85  60 /   0   0  20  90
McKinney            81  63  84  62 /   0   0   0  90
Dallas              83  67  86  65 /   0   0   0  90
Terrell             82  64  85  64 /   0   0  10  90
Corsicana           82  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  80
Temple              86  65  86  65 /   0   0   0  80
Mineral Wells       82  63  84  58 /  10   0  30  80

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ094-095-105>107-120>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.