Peachtree City/Atlanta, Georgia

Morning Area Forecast Discussion

• Widely scattered rain showers return for some today but accumulation, if any, will remain very light.
• Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected through this next week.
• Increasing potential for unsettled weather between Wednesday and Thursday.

November begins on a cooler and dreary note. Scattered light rain showers and clouds blanket the forecast area this morning. Expect light rain or drizzle to be on and off through mid-day decreasing in coverage by late afternoon/evening. Easterly winds will remain breezy with occasional gusts up to 20 MPH through the day. Rain and clouds will keep a lid on our temperatures with daytime highs in the 50s for the mountains, 60s for most places but low 70s for areas south of Columbus to Macon. With clouds still present by this time tomorrow, overnight lows will be on the mild side -- upper 40s to mid 50s.

Shortwave lifts northeast tonight, a shallow wedge-like feature remains in place at the surface and broad midlevel ridging builds back over the Southeast for Monday. Mostly dry for North and Central Georgia, partly cloud skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Daytime highs for most (except the mountains) will climb back into the 70s.

As the long term period picks up on Monday night, an amplified upper level pattern will be in place over much of the CONUS, with a ridge axis extending from the northeast Gulf through Georgia and towards the northern Great Lakes and a strong trough swinging through the central Great Plains. Surface high pressure associated with the ridge will be centered near the Mid-Atlantic coast, keeping a shallow wedge in place across north and east portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning will begin in the mid 50s in north Georgia and upper 50s to low 60s in central Georgia. Breezy easterly winds in the wedge pattern should inhibit widespread fog formation in spite of increasing moisture. The upper level pattern will transition eastward over the course of the day on Tuesday, with Georgia becoming positioned underneath southwesterly flow aloft. As this flow strengthens, deep moisture will surge into the region and dewpoints will rise into the 60s while precipitable water values rise to between 1.75-2 inches.

Uncertainty remains with respect to the trough, its evolution, and how it interacts with the lingering wedge as it approaches the Southeast by midweek. A surface low under the trough will extend a cold front southward, which will move from west to east towards the area. Forcing ahead of the front and moist, relatively unstable air will support widespread rain and numerous thunderstorms across the forecast area. Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1-2 inches in areas along and north of I-85, with lower amounts to the south. Chances are currently expected to rise on Wednesday morning and continue through the day on Thursday, though the timing, rainfall amounts, and severe weather potential will depend on the evolution of the trough and associated low pressure system. Low temperatures during the middle to later parts of the week will closely reflect dewpoints, while high temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the low to mid 70s in north Georgia and upper 70s to low 80s in central Georgia.

Sct shra in and around the sites over the next 24 hrs with patchy MVFR mainly associated with any precipitation. Otherwise, BKN to OVC VFR and breezy winds 7-12kts with some iso gusts up to 20kts thru the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update

Medium on timing of shra.High confidence on all other elements.

07

Athens          64  52  72  54 /  20  20   0   0
Atlanta         63  55  73  58 /  40  20   0   0
Blairsville     59  47  66  50 /  30  30   0   0
Cartersville    64  52  73  56 /  40  20   0   0
Columbus        69  57  77  61 /  30  20   0   0
Gainesville     61  54  69  57 /  30  30   0   0
Macon           68  54  77  57 /  30  10   0   0
Rome            63  51  73  55 /  50  20   0   0
Peachtree City  63  52  73  56 /  30  20   0   0
Vidalia         75  59  79  60 /  40  10  10   0

None.