Offices

Area Forecast Discussion · DVN

Davenport/Quad Cities, Iowa

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9040 North Harrison Street, Davenport, IA 52806, United States of America

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Product header AFDDVN·FXUS63 KDVN 010500
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
AWIPS ID
AFDDVN
WMO heading
FXUS63 KDVN 010500
Sequence
471

KEY MESSAGES

  • A significant storm system will move through the Midwest the first half of the week. Behind the system spotty rain showers will be possible for the second half of the work week.
  • Although cooler, temperatures will continue to average above normal for early November.

SHORT TERM

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT · Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Weak disturbances will keep plenty of clouds around today along with sprinkles or small areas of rain showers. The cloud cover and rain will help suppress temperatures (similar to Saturday) but still above normal for early November.

Clouds will further increase and lower tonight as moisture from the developing storm system begins moving into the area.

LONG TERM

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY · Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Monday through Wednesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures.

Although there are differences between the global models, they have been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions. Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being Monday night into Tuesday.

The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with the surge of moisture from the Pacific along with some from the Gulf. The model PWATs with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with any thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be possible since we`ll be in the warm sector of the storm. The signal for strong to severe storms is mixed but various ML runs suggests a severe potential in the Plains. Back in eastern Iowa the signal is being lost in the overall background noise.

Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the area on Wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible the second half of the work week.

Temperatures through the entire week will average above normal for early November.

AVIATION

06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY · Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Areas of rain showers will slowly increase in areal coverage to 25-35% through through 15z/01. Brief MVFR VSBYS in the stronger showers are possible. After 15z/01 the SHRA will slowly dissipate. Moisture moving north from the Gulf will allow MVFR CIGS to overspread the area from south to north after 00z/02.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA

None.

IL

None.

MO

None.

SHORT TERM...08LONG TERM...08AVIATION...08

Help & About

Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

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