Burlington, Vermont

As of 152 AM EST Sunday

Rainfall prospects for Tuesday are somewhat higher, and temperatures for Wednesday have been trended upwards to near record warmth in the St. Lawrence Valley.

As of 152 AM EST Sunday

1. Temperatures becoming warmer heading into November.

2. A cold front will move through the Northeast late this week bringing breezes and periods of rain possibly Thursday through the weekend.

As of 152 AM EST Sunday

KEY MESSAGE 1: Little in the manner of impactful weather is expected over the next several days. High pressure will move offshore, and that will allow warm air to gradually filter into the region under steady south to southwest flow. This will bring 50s today, and then 60s tomorrow. It`ll still be on the dry side, but winds will generally be lighter where the lowest humidity values will be. Nighttime temperatures will also trend warmer, with only cooler hollows of sheltered valleys east of any mountain slopes below freezing tonight. There`s still a tilted mid to upper level ridge that will be positioned to our west through about Tuesday. As it begins to translate eastwards, depending on the positioning of an upper vort, the surge of warm, moist advection could become collocated with marginal synoptic forcing. This would result in an area of clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not every model scenario depicts rain, and so PoPs are mainly at or below 50 percent at this time.

Once the upper ridge is offshore, temperatures will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s for Wednesday in response to somewhat tighter pressure gradients as a surface low tracks over far northern Quebec Province. A few daily record highs may be in striking distance. Ushering in the warmth will be south winds gusting around 15-25 mph with localized observations around 30 mph, especially in the broader valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus favors a full meridional trough ejecting out of the Plains Wednesday night with a cold front passing through the Northeast between Thursday and Friday. Timing spread has narrowed a little, but model discrepancies remain on how fast the high pressure shifts eastward, the timing of the front itself, and the strength of frontal dynamics. Some models are stalling the boundary in the vicinity of Vermont streaming ample moisture across the region while others are more progressive with flow resulting in more distinct rounds of rainfall. While the details are sparse, most guidance agrees that there is a good shot at an extended period of rain chances with the trailing upper low becoming at least partially cut off. This would promote lingering shower chances through the weekend potentially into early next week. The details that are more predictable are continued warm temperatures under southerly flow Thursday with some southerly breezes ongoing as well. Beyond Thursday, temperatures are favored to cool back towards seasonal averages with coldest air locked well north of the region.

Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period except for SLK through 14Z due to freezing fog and stratus. This will lift and scatter after sunrise, but may take a little longer given the decreasing sun angle. Otherwise, southerly flow picks up this afternoon with some gusts to around 20kts at MSS and PBG with 12-18kts more likely at other terminals. High clouds increase overnight and begin to lower heading into Monday.

Outlook

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.

Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th with the greatest chance at KMSS.

Record    | Forecast
71 (2022) | 71

VT

None.

NY

None.