Brownsville, Texas

New AVIATION

• Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Monday.
• Patchy fog, some possibly dense in spots is possible tonight.
• Dry, hot, and at times breezy into Tuesday.
• Cool front #1 arrives Tuesday; low-medium (20-40%) rain chances Tuesday/Tuesday night.
• Cool front #2 could arrive by next weekend with additional chances for rain showers (20-40%).

A changeable weather pattern with fluctuating temperature trends and a couple chances for rain will take place through next week as at least one cool front looks to impact our weather here across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

In the near term or tonight into Sunday morning, mist/fog will be the main weather focus. Narrowing dewpoint depressions amid strong radiational cooling on top of calm winds and residual low level moisture will support the development of mist/fog overnight tonight. Multiple models including the NBM is picking this up. Currently, there is medium (40-60%) confidence/probabilities that fog will develop tonight over the Rio Grande Valley. Chances are even higher north across the Northern Ranchlands. Patchy areas of dense fog is possible tonight into Sunday morning. Any fog that develops overnight tonight will dissipate mid to late Sunday morning. Overnight low temperatures are progged to fall into the lower 70s along the valley with mid to upper 60s over the Northern Ranchlands, similar to dewpoint temperatures (Td).

In response to a brief strengthening period of a nearby 588-591 dam sub-tropical heat ridge, a warming trend will take place Sunday through Tuesday. High temperatures most places will be in the low-mid 90s during this timeframe.

On Tuesday, our first cool front, associated with an occluding mid-latitude cyclone or low pressure system in the Kansas/Oklahoma area, will push through Deep South Texas. Ahead and along the front, increased sfc convergence and residing moisture around could support the development of rain showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Currently, we have low grade (20-40%) chances for showers developing Tuesday/Tuesday night with higher chances over the Gulf Waters. The best chance over land will be across Brooks/Kenedy Counties during the day on Tuesday expanding areas along the coast Tuesday evening/night. Excessive rain/flooding is not expected as the front is rather dry coming from the north. Behind the cool front, cooler and drier air will advect into the region. High temperatures will be about 10F degrees cooler than on Tuesday with values in the low-mid 80s.

Temperatures moderate later in the week ahead of possibly another cool front that could arrive by next weekend. The second cool front that may arrive next weekend could bring with it another chance for rain showers. Currently, we also have low grade (20-40%) chances for rain showers Saturday into Sunday. Stay tuned for additional updates as we get closer into time. Finally, with these cool fronts, we will have to keep close watch on fire weather threats and coastal/marine hazards through next weekend.

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and clear to partly cloudy rain-free skies.

Low to moderate winds and seas are expected through Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are then expected in response to the cool fropa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low to moderate winds and seas return Thursday through Friday.

BROWNSVILLE             89  74  90  76 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  70  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  75  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  76  83  77 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  72  88  74 /  10   0   0   0

None.