Springfield, Missouri

• Drizzle and lowered visibilities will stick around through the late morning into the early afternoon hours.
• 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65.
• 90+% chance for rain to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather with this system, mostly along and west of I-49.

The heavier rain showers are currently over central MO and the eastern Ozarks and will continue to push northeast for the rest of the morning. Most of the area saw rain showers yesterday with some places getting up to 0.5". Drizzle has been occurring over the last few hours over western MO early this morning. There`s still plenty of lift and moisture hanging around behind the main rain shield to produce drizzle awhile longer. Expect drizzle to continue through the late morning/early afternoon as the shortwave continues to push east. Visibilities may be temporarily reduced in the heavier patches of drizzle. Skies today will be cloudy with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s, which is only a few more degrees than where they are now. Winds will be out of the southeast through the day and stay near 10 mph or less. Skies will remain cloudy overnight with lows settling into the 50s.

We`ll start to feel the impacts of the incoming trough on Monday as southeasterly winds become gusty near 30-35 mph by late morning with the strongest gusts along and west of Highway 65. Rain chances begin to increase overnight Monday into Tuesday (50-90%).

There is still a Marginal to Slight risk of severe weather possible for areas along and west of I-49 with the Slight being further west. Timing for severe weather is Monday afternoon/ evening. Right now, the best severe risk still appears to be over central KS, with the western CWA getting clipped. This is likely due to the base of the trough going through that area before the trough becomes elongated as it moves over us due to another incoming mid-level trough over the Great Lakes region. All modes of severe weather are possible with this system as supercells will initiate first just to our west. By the time it gets to our area, guidance is showing the convection forming a line of storms as it pushes through. This storm mode would favor more of a QLCS than supercells. Though, the instability is still a bit lacking, the wind shear and SRH will be conducive for severe weather. If storms stay severe as they enter our CWA, they will likely occur west of I-49 with storms becoming less severe as they push further east into a less conducive environment. KS and OK may see the majority of the severe weather, with us seeing some rumbles of thunder and beneficial rainfall of 1 to 2 inches through Tuesday. Rain will taper off by Tuesday morning.

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of the week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10 degrees. Though, it will bring them closer to average for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the rest of the week. Another low pressure system will bring low-end rain chances by mid-week (15-20%).

A system continues to move through the area overnight and into Sunday morning. Areas of scattered light rain chances persist through the early morning hours, before dissipating from west to east. Expect reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles at KJLN and KSGF. Further reduced visibilities approaching 2 miles or less at KBBG as we progress through the early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, ceilings will continue to deteriorate with widespread MVFR to IFR ranging from 500 to 1500 feet. LIFR ceilings around 300 feet envelop KBBG. Light rain chances gradually diminish through Sunday morning, with IFR to MVFR ceilings lingering into the later part of the TAF period.

KS

None.

MO

None.