Mobile/Pensacola, Alabama

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE

• Increased rain chances continue today. Most areas can expect around 0.5" to 1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3" to 4 are possible.
• A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to near 5 feet today, with rough surf expected. There is a small chance of minor coastal flooding through daybreak this morning.
• Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

The main upper-level shortwave trough is weakening and moving east of the area, leaving northwest flow aloft in place today. However, lingering moisture will keep PWATs elevated in the 1.6-1.9 inch range, which remains above the 90th percentile for this time of year. These values will gradually decrease through the day as drier air aloft filters in from the northwest. An additional weak shortwave embedded within the northwest flow is expected to swing through the area today, helping to foster scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded storms given the moisture still in place. The greatest focus for precipitation will be across our Alabama and Florida counties today. Most locations should see less than an inch of rainfall, although very isolated higher amounts are possible. Similar to yesterday, any deeper convection that develops could be slow-moving given the weak deep-layer mean flow, so localized flooding cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, some guidance continues to depict very little precipitation given the meager forcing, making this a fairly uncertain forecast in terms of rainfall coverage and distribution. Any heavier showers should gradually diminish through the evening.

Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy, mild, and breezy conditions through Tuesday. Broad surface high pressure will persist over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, maintaining a persistent easterly low-level flow across the local area. Shortwave ridging aloft will keep conditions mainly dry Monday into Tuesday, outside of perhaps a few passing showers.

Later Tuesday into Wednesday, low-level flow becomes southeasterly, allowing humidity to increase ahead of an approaching longwave upper trough traversing the Plains. The evolution of this trough will ultimately determine local impacts, including rainfall and severe weather potential. The latest guidance has been trending toward a farther north and weaker trough ejection solution, as a second cutoff low catches up from behind and disrupts the flow on the backside of the leading trough, preventing it from digging farther south and taking on a negative tilt. This solution would greatly limit the severe potential locally, and AI/ML guidance is also suggesting that the severe threat will remain quite low. However, this remains something to monitor over the coming days given the continued uncertainty in the overall evolution of the system. Regardless of the severe potential, this system will likely bring another round of showers and perhaps a few storms to the area during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe. Modest instability would support a few storms, but forcing remains in question.

The cold front is expected to move through late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing drier conditions for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures will also trend cooler behind the front.

Taking a look at coastal impacts, a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all area beaches through at least Tuesday, and will likely need to be extended through Wednesday. Rough surf is also expected, with surf heights around 3 to 5 feet today into Monday. As of Saturday evening, have held off on issuing a High Surf Advisory given slightly weaker offshore winds than previously forecast and surf heights remaining borderline for advisory criteria. There is also some concern for splashover or minor coastal flooding along the Mobile County side of Mobile Bay during the early Sunday morning high tide. P-ETTS guidance has indicated water levels approaching minor flood stage along western Mobile Bay. Given the minor and localized nature of the threat, have opted to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time. JGC/98

VFR to MVFR ceilings persist across the region, eventually giving way to IFR ceilings during the late overnight into morning hours today. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the area into the morning, increasing in coverage during the late morning into afternoon hours. Best coverage looks to be across the Florida panhandle into south-central Alabama. MVFR flight category will likely return during the late morning into afternoon hours. Winds remain out of east at 5 to 10 knots, gusting 15 to 20 knots at times near the coast during the day. MM/25

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Monday evening for the offshore gulf waters. Winds gradually decrease and turn onshore by mid- week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25

Mobile      77  65  79  65 /  60  20  10   0
Pensacola   77  67  79  68 /  60  20  10   0
Destin      77  66  79  67 /  60  20  10   0
Evergreen   74  60  78  60 /  60  20   0   0
Waynesboro  76  61  79  61 /  60  20  10   0
Camden      72  60  76  61 /  60  30   0   0
Crestview   77  62  80  62 /  70  10  10   0

AL

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS

None.

GM

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.