Little Rock, Arkansas

New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION

• Area of precipitation over NE Arkansas will continue to move out of the state.
• Mainly dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday before the next weather system approaches Monday night and Tuesday.
• Several inches of rain will be possible in spots Monday night and Tuesday but widespread flooding is not expected.
• A few stronger storms can not be ruled out Tuesday with gusty winds the primary concern.

Latest regional radars continue to show an area of light to occasionally moderate precipitation exiting the CWA to the NE. Upper trough currently over north central sections of the state also making a slow progression to the east and will take the majority of the shower activity with it as it exits the state early this morning.

In its wake, weak ridging will build back over the region for this afternoon through Monday before moving off. While a stray shower or two can not be discounted, the majority of the state will be dry once this initial batch of rain moves out.

Attention will then turn to an advancing H5 trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position along the west coast and into the central/northern high plains by the end of Monday. Main low will be located over the northern plains but guidance continues to advertise a secondary low developing along the associated surface boundary as the system evolves.

Southwest flow will draw moisture into the region with said boundary located along the AR/OK border by early Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and in advance of the boundary as it moves across the state on Tuesday. Upper flow will largely be parallel to the boundary meaning it will take some time for it to clear the state but conditions do appear to improve rapidly in its wake.

Guidance has the majority of the precipitation crossing the MS River by the end of Tuesday with the front lagging behind by several hours. Upper trough will move through the state on Wednesday with at least a few showers possible as the upper support lifts out. A inch of two of rain is not out of the realm of possibility with this system with locally heavier amounts not out of the question. Data now supports a few stronger storms Tuesday as the system moves through with gusty winds the primary concern.

Several other weak impulses move through the prevailing flow Thursday and again Friday night but little more than in increase in clouds are expected. Models do slide another trough through Saturday night that could bring a better chance of showers to round out the period.

Am upper level impulse continues to advance through the area with scattered showers slowly exiting the region to the NE. Pcpn will still remain over the majority of the TAF sites through the night with widespread VFR to MVFR condtions expected. IFR conditions can not be excluded in areas of heavier showers. Winds will remain generally light and variable with conditions slowly improving during the day Sunday.

Batesville AR     71  58  75  62 /  30  30  40  50
Camden AR         80  60  81  62 /  10  20  10  30
Harrison AR       71  58  74  62 /  20  10  10  80
Hot Springs AR    78  60  78  63 /  10  10  30  60
Little Rock   AR  76  61  78  64 /  10  30  30  40
Monticello AR     77  62  79  65 /  50  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      77  57  78  61 /   0  10  40  80
Mountain Home AR  69  58  73  62 /  30  10  20  70
Newport AR        71  59  76  63 /  50  30  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     77  60  79  62 /  30  20  10  20
Russellville AR   76  59  78  63 /  10  10  30  80
Searcy AR         73  59  76  62 /  30  30  40  40
Stuttgart AR      75  61  78  64 /  50  30  10  20

None.