Jackson, Kentucky

• A low potential for rain returns today and lingers into Monday morning.
• A more significant system brings a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of the week.

Early this morning, shortwave ridging extended from east of southeast US coast into the Central Appalachians to MI and was shifting eastward. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough extended from portions of the Central Conus/IA vicinity into the lower MS Valley vicinity. Behind that, shortwave ridging extended from Mexico across the Southern Plains and into parts of the Central Plains. Further west, an upper level trough continues to move into western Canada and western sections of the Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered in the mid Atlantic states. High and mid level clouds were passing across the region at this point. The weak returns on radar across the region at this time appear to be virga, with rather dry air in place in the low levels. Mid and high level clouds continue moving across the region though there were some breaks or thinner areas at times and temperatures as of 3 AM EST ranged from around 50 to the low 60s.

Today and tonight, the shortwave ridging east of eastern KY will continue to shift to the east while the shortwave trough will approach from the west. The axis of this shortwave trough should move into eastern Ky tonight and then shift to the east on Monday morning. Sfc high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states should gradually become centered along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, shortwave ridging builds east in the wake of the shortwave and the axis of this ridging reaches the western Gulf to sections of the OH Valley by late Monday. Further west, the previously mentioned upper trough will work across the sections of western Canada and the western U.S. and enter the Plains/portions of the Central Conus by Monday evening.

Mid and even low level moisture will gradually increase today as the shortwave trough nears, with moisture in the low and mid levels peaking from this evening to early on Monday. During that time, PW per the 00Z REFS should peak in the 1 to 1.2 inch range or about the 85th to 90th percentile. As moisture increases and the shortwave nears, light rain could reach the ground in the southwest as early as this morning, though the potential across the area peaks during the afternoon into tonight. There remains considerable uncertainty on the areal extent of rain reaching the ground as well as timing and where/if it will be measurable particularly in the southeast. There the effects of downslope low level level flow around surface high pressure centered in the mid Atlantic states and extending into parts of the Southeast should be the strongest. Chances for light rain diminish on Monday morning as the shortwave departs to the east and northeast and 500 mb height rises follow. For QPF, opted to lean higher than the NBM deterministic and toward WPC QPF for tonight to account for some of the higher 00Z deterministic guidance and 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS means.

Upper ridging shifts across eastern KY and sections of the Southeast Monday night to Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper level trough moves into the Central Conus and approaches the OH Valley from the west. Recent deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs and GEFS/EPS means develop a closed low by late Tuesday, but then differ in the track and how long it is maintained and the downstream evolution. The common theme of deterministic and ensemble guidance is that the axis of the 500 mb trough should remain west of eastern KY into at least Friday. Also, there is consensus in the guidance on bringing a lead shortwave trough into the OH Valley on Wednesday which crosses the area by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. At the same time, a sfc low pressure system should track from the Central and into the eastern Conus and through the OH Valley. As this system crosses the area, 00Z LREF from the 31st has mean PW rising into the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range on Wednesday afternoon/evening or roughly into at least the 90th to 97th percentile for early November. This system should bring the potential for more widespread rainfall to the region from Wednesday into Thursday. Some locally heavier rainfall is not out of the question if there were to be any training given the degree of anticipated moisture. WPC has placed western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Day 4.

Thunder cannot be ruled out as the midweek system passes though instability will be limited with MUCAPE peaking at 250 J/kg or less per 00Z LREF. Winds may also become a bit gusty with the midweek system in the Tuesday night to Wednesday evening period, with the strongest gusts most probable in the higher terrain near the VA border. ENS based probabilities for wind gusts over 40 mph are maximized in the 20 to 30 percent range near the VA border/harlan County per the 00Z LREF. Otherwise, chances for rain linger until the 500 mb trough axis crosses the area around the late Friday to early Saturday timeframe.

Temperatures will be mild on Tuesday, on the order of 10 to 15 degrees or so above normal for highs and remain mild until the front crosses the region at midweek. Temperatures trend colder to end the week as the trough moves across the area.

ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN NOV 1 2026

VFR conditions with primarily mid-high level ceilings are forecast to begin the period. As a disturbance approaches, the atmosphere will gradually be saturating from the top down and some low clouds are anticipated by the last 12 hours of the period, though VFR should still prevail. Light rain is possible mainly after 18Z for locations near and west of I-75. Chances spread to the east and northeast during the last 12 hours of the period. If rain were more substantive than currently forecast, some brief sub VFR reductions cannot be completely ruled out late in the period, but confidence and it its occurrence continues to not be high enough to explicitly address in TAFs.

None.