State College, Pennsylvania

• No significant changes

1) Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues until the second half of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues until the second half of the week.

Mid and high clouds already cover most of PA, but there are some thinner patches. Clouds aren`t any lower than 9kft. This should remain the case for today with almost no low clouds/cu. However, more moisture is brought into the area from the southwest on Monday. A sprinkle isn`t out of the question over the N Monday night - much like the very small and brief shower they had two nights ago. We`ll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no risk of 0.01" accumulating. That isn`t great news for northern PA where BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is currently on a run of 14 straight days without measurable (0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of the week. Wed night is the earliest anyone will see precip as a complex system develops over the middle of the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft that will decide the development and progression of this system. The more weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only a brief 12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through (longer in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed night and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the first part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with instability showers.

VFR conditions are virtually certain through 00Z Monday, with the only chance for sub-VFR conditions coming in the 09-13Z timeframe today across the Susquehanna river valley airfields (IPT/MDT/LNS). At this time, restrictions continue to be most likely in the form of fog/low stratus given some potential for breaks in the high level cloud deck and/or slower eastward progression of the cloud deck. HREF ensemble probabilities continue to outline highest chances (~20-30%) at IPT/LNS, with GLAMP also outlining ~10-20% probabilities of this scenario unfolding overnight. The main concern is that fog would have to contend with some low level dry air based on RAP model soundings. Based on this, have continued to hold stout with VCFG mentions with lower-level scattered cloud decks at IPT in the timeframe where restrictions will be possible.

Outlook

Mon-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers.

None.