Amarillo, Texas

New AVIATION

• Low ceilings and patchy low visibility overnight.
• Thunderstorms with a posisbility of severe weather late Sunday night
• Windy day for Monday afternoon

Quiet weather has been observed this evening across the area although things are changing. Looking for patchy areas of fog reducing visibilities at times overnight across portions of the area. Latest model trends suggest that while the fog could be dense in areas it does not linger for too long. However low ceilings are likely to develop quickly tonight and continue for a good portion of the day Sunday. Evening IR satellite imagery showing a strong influx of moisture into southern CA and AZ into the mountain west states. Radar imagery showing a large precipitation shield from the LA area into southern AZ ahead of the trough off the west coast. 80kt 500mb jet in the east Pacific on the back side of the trough will keep it digging while an 80kt sub tropical jet moves into the southwestern states. During the day Sunday these systems will begin to merge and start shifting east. By late Sunday evening the stronger upper level winds will be moving from NM into west TX with developing surface low pressure in eastern CO. At the same time a developing 40kt low level jet from west TX into western KS will increase. The net effect will be for a rapid increase in wind shear with a very favorable wind profile across the region late Sunday into early Monday morning. Strong forcing with diffluent flow in the mid levels will promote upward motion moving from NM into west TX overnight. Forecast soundings are showing a very moist profile with tall skinny cape however shear profiles are favorable for supercells. CAM`s are showing the development of a line of thunderstorms across NM by early evening and then racing to the east. In additon UH tracks are showing some long lived corridors from NM into west TX overnight.

As the trough moves east into the central U.S. a belt of stronger winds will remain across the region on Monday. There is the potential for strong winds of 45-50 mph Monday afternoon. As the trough pulls away the gradient will relax and the winds will subside by Monday evening. The longer range looks potentially active with another trough moving across the area by mid week and and the pattern stays relatively active even beyond the forecast period.

Latest NT Microphysics satellite loop is showing low clouds increasing and expanding over the OK Panhandle and the eastern TX Panhandle and beginning now in the Amarillo/Canyon areas. Ceilings were about 300-400ft at this time. Expecting to see a continued rapid increase in low clouds over most of the panhandles. There will also be patchy fog across the area with some locally dense fog possible at times overnight. Winds will stay generally out of the south around 10kt. Winds should increase to 15-20kt (with gusts up to 35kt possible) late Sunday afternoon and evening.

TX

None.

OK

None.